Hello everyone, happy Thursday, happy first day of May, and happy last week of the election campaign. We are only two days out from Australians going to the polls and electing a new Government. The news over the last week has been heavy, both here and abroad, so let’s go through it one last time with your Final Tally weekly news roundup.

Reflections on five weeks of campaigning

It’s the final week of the federal election campaign and over the last five weeks, the leaders of all the parties have been criss-crossing the country, making their pitch to voters. They have been participating in debates, eating sausage rolls, drinking beer, and making too many appearances to count at all different places from petrol stations to hospitals. Opposition Leader, Peter Dutton, has been trying to push the message that Australia is worse off under the current Labor Government, pushing cost of living difficulties as his main argument. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has been touting an (albeit) slow economic recovery from the pandemic years, showing inflation decreasing and interest rates cutting. He asserts that Labor will help build and strengthen Australia, while Dutton and the Coalition wants to cut.

So, whose message is resonating with voters and where do things stand a mere two days to election day? Recent polls are currently in Labor’s favour to win the two party preferred vote and their rise in the polls has been consistent over the whole campaign. It is unknown whether that will play out on election day though. The Coalition’s fortunes, on the other hand, aren’t looking good, with their polling consistently dropping throughout the campaign. Many believe this is due to Peter Dutton’s campaign fumbles such as bad press conferences and backflipping on key policies. 

However, it should be noted that those same polls are also showing an increased share in people looking to vote independent due to dissatisfaction with both parties. It should be noted though, that polls don’t substitute for votes and Australians will only know who won once all votes are counted on election night.

Canada votes in an election focused on Trump

Meanwhile, up north and across the Pacific, Canada held their general election, and it can possibly give us hints as to where things will go on Saturday. In Canada, an unpopular Liberal (left-wing) government was facing imminent defeat at the hands of the Conservatives (right wing). The outlook for the Liberals was so bad that many believed the party would lose so many seats that they would lose official party status. But then three things happened that flipped the election on its head: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned, Donald Trump was inaugurated as US President and slapped tariffs on Canada and threatened to make it the 51st state, and Mark Carney replaced Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister. In a little over a month, the polls flipped and an unpopular Liberal Government surged in the polls to overtake the Conservatives. Canada was in the midst of a “rally around the flag” moment as many people saw the new Prime Minister, Mark Carney, as a strong and steady leader who could take on Trump as he threatened Canada’s sovereignty. To capitalise on this political popularity, Carney called a snap election and it seems to have paid off. His party won the election with 169 seats and a minority government. He was just three seats shy of a majority and won the popular vote.

This is the power that the US President has on a foreign country’s elections, can the same thing be said for here in Australia? Its hard to say, while Australia and the US have differences on policies and values, there is no vitriol and clear threats against its sovereignty by the US President as there was with Canada. Australia is also a far away country, Canada is next to America. Furthermore, Trump and Albanese’s relationship seems to be professional and cordial, for now, as opposed to the vitriol between the Trump Administration and the Government of Canada. However, it has to be said that Trump’s influence can still be seen here in the Australian election.

As I covered in last week’s post, some Australians see right-wing populism espoused by Peter Dutton and some Coalition leaders (such as senator Jacinta Price) as similar to that of the right-wing policies of Trump. After Trump slapped 10% tariffs on Australia, many Australians look very unfavourably on the US President or anything that reminds them of him. And many are seeing the shadow of Trumpism beginning to creep into Australian politics with Coalition policies such as combating “wokeism” at Universities or ending work from home (a policy that has since been rescinced) as close to Trump. Will the association with Trump sink the Coalition’s campaign as it did the Conservatives in Canada? I’m not sure, but I do think that Trump’s influence will be felt on election day as people make their final decisions 

Trump’s first 100 Days:

Finally, as a closing story, many of you have probably seen the “first 100 days of Trump” floating around the internet. That is because this past week marked the first 100 days in office of Trump in his second term. In the US, it’s customary for presidents and news networks to mark the first 100 days and reflect to see how a new administration is doing. Recent polls showed Trump with a net-negative approval rating, lower than many of his successors at this point in their administrations. To mark the milestone, Trump held a rally in Michigan, vowing to carry on with his agenda. 

Go vote!

Well, that’s it from me. Remember, please go out and vote on Saturday, its mandatory here in Australia and will help shape the country over the next three years. And besides, you get a tasty democracy sausage at the end!

Have a good day everyone, and get out and vote on Saturday!